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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 56

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Denver Broncos 30

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to DEN 16, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP