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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 24

Denver Broncos 27 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model