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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 27

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens ran ob at DEN 10 for 17 yards [99-Z.Allen]. DEN-99-Z.Allen was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model