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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to DEN 15, Center-44-T.Sieg. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 28 for 13 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP