4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to CHI 4, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model