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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 40

Chicago Bears 6 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 8-C.Santos 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.16 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model