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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 40 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to CAR 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 23 for 7 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.16 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model