4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 27

Buffalo Bills 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 15-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.98 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model