Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 40 – Carolina Panthers 9

(5:06) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to CAR 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 19 for 6 yards (37-J.Hancock).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.48 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model