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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 35

Carolina Panthers 3 – Buffalo Bills 40

What Actually Happened

(13:13) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 17-X.Legette to BUF 24 for 11 yards (47-C.Benford).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.36 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model