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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to BUF 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 24 for 4 yards (0-J.Sanders).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.66 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model