Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 8-R.Rehkow punts 38 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 85-K.Williams. PENALTY on CIN-37-P.Jules, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP

KICK -1.10 EP

32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
68% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model