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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 30 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 8-R.Rehkow punts 60 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-W.Wagner. 85-K.Williams pushed ob at PIT 42 for 17 yards (55-L.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.11 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model