4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 5

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 2-E.McPherson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP