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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 9

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 16-J.Flacco up the middle to PIT 7 for 2 yards (99-D.Harmon; 55-C.Holcomb).

The Three Options

GO +3.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.55 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model