4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 60

New York Giants 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 12-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.85 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP