Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 80

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 0

(12:30) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to NYG 32, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.93 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model