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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 42

New York Giants 13 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 12-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to DEN 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.30 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model