Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 64

New York Giants 13 – Denver Broncos 0

(1:11) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to DEN 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.01 EP
51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model