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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 41

New York Giants 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 12-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.99 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model