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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 72

New York Giants 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 12-J.Gillan punts 57 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-M.Mims to DEN 32 for 17 yards (86-T.Fidone).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.75 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model