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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 26

Chicago Bears 26 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to NO 18 for 8 yards (21-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.67 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP