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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 15

Chicago Bears 23 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 16-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.71 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 15, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model