4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 9

Chicago Bears 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 16-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.45 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 9, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP