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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 68

Chicago Bears 23 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 19-T.Taylor punts 47 yards to NO 21, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-46-S.Daly.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model