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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 6

Chicago Bears 20 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 16-J.Moody 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 6, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP