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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 51

Chicago Bears 20 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to NO 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.72 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 51, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP