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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 0 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to CHI 43 for -1 yards (98-M.Sweat, 49-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.00 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model