4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 21

Chicago Bears 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 16-J.Moody 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model