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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 18

New England Patriots 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.51 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model