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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 35

New England Patriots 31 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 26-T.Jennings up the middle to TEN 32 for 3 yards (93-T.Sweat; 53-J.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.14 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model