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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 46

Tennessee Titans 13 – New England Patriots 31

What Actually Happened

(5:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 2-T.Spears to NE 35 for 11 yards (15-M.Mapu).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP