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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 37

New England Patriots 31 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 22 yards to TEN 15, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.30 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP