Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 13 – New England Patriots 31

(5:27) 3-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to NE 35, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.36 EP
69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model