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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 9

New England Patriots 17 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(8:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas to TEN 4 for 5 yards (50-C.Barton).

The Three Options

GO +3.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.38 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model