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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 13 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.27 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -1.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP