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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 32

Tennessee Titans 10 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.57 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model