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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 28-J.Taylor right guard to IND 39 for no gain (23-T.Jefferson; 99-J.Caldwell). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 28-J.Taylor right guard to IND 40 for 1 yard (23-T.Jefferson; 99-J.Caldwell).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.70 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model