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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.03 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model