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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to LAC 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Davis to LAC 20 for -3 yards (38-C.Lammons).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.28 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model