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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-41-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.18 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model