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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 4

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.14 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model