Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 99

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Houston Texans 12

(4:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to HOU 43, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-B.Berrios to 50 for 7 yards (28-N.Pritchett).

The Three Options

GO -4.17 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.35 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 99, worth -6.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model