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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 5

Houston Texans 12 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(5:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 81-J.Higgins.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 5, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model