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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 45

Houston Texans 12 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(9:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 27-W.Marks (42-D.Thomas) [99-L.Williams].

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.87 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model