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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 49

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Houston Texans 12

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to HOU 11, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-B.Berrios pushed ob at HOU 21 for 10 yards (38-B.Russell).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model