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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 59

Houston Texans 12 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (No Huddle) 27-W.Marks left tackle to HOU 39 for -2 yards (0-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.09 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model