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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Houston Texans 12

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.43 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP