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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(:23) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.11 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model