Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 73

Houston Texans 0 – Seattle Seahawks 14

(9:19) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to SEA 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-T.Horton pushed ob at SEA 43 for 15 yards (88-H.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.49 EP
58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model